Human Capital Intel - 8/26/25
HR under AI pressure | Agents challenge managers | Credentials disappoint | White-collar freeze | TikTok at work
Welcome to the latest edition of Human Capital Intelligence, your weekly brief synthesizing over 250 leadership, HR, and people sources to filter out the noise. As always, we would love to hear from you at ken@reyvism.com with questions you’d like answered or topics covered.
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By Ken Stibler; Powered by Reyvism Analytics
Do we still need an HR function?
AI is moving into HR at a speed that raises an uncomfortable question: do companies still need humans to run human resources? One in three firms expect AI will fully manage their hiring by 2026. Already, nearly 60% use AI for résumé screening, candidate communications, or even direct interviews. At RingCentral, HR head Alvin Lam says his team can lose more staff and still “deliver the same level of service” thanks to chatbots and automation. JPMorgan Chase, Salesforce, and Amazon are telling investors the same story: headcount reductions and productivity gains are coming as AI tools advance.
The AI revolution will cut nearly $1 trillion a year out of S&P 500 budgets, Morgan Stanley says—largely from agents and robots doing human jobs. (Fortune)
For HR leaders, the tension is acute. They are being told to deploy AI to cut costs while also serving as the “people champions” inside their organizations. In practice, that often means automating repetitive work, like policy inquiries or scheduling, while staff handle more complex, sensitive issues. IBM’s AskHR now fields 94% of employee questions automatically. But regulatory and legal risks loom: lawsuits against Workday allege discrimination in algorithmic hiring, and California is considering a “No Robo Bosses Act” to ensure human oversight in promotions and firings.
The HR function itself has become a proving ground for how AI will reshape corporate structures. HR departments have been early adopters of generative AI but are now seeing some of the steepest declines in hiring for their own teams. At IBM, HR spending is down 40% in four years, and McKinsey ranks HR among the top business units reporting cost savings from generative AI. Some leaders, like Moderna’s Tracey Franklin, are going further, merging HR and technology into a single function aimed at redesigning how tasks, information, and decisions get done.
What happens next depends on whether HR leaders can demonstrate their value. As Laszlo Bock, Google’s former HR chief, puts it, the test is whether they prove to be “the secret police of corporations” or true advocates for employees. With AI poised to automate as much as 80% of HR tasks, the remaining 20%, the most sensitive and human-centered work, will determine whether HR remains a vital part of corporate life or fades into an AI-administered back office.
AI agents comes for management
Employees are warming to the idea of AI not just as a tool but as a boss. Surveys show 38% would rather have an AI manager than a human, and nearly half say they trust AI more than their coworkers. C-suite leaders are even more open, with half saying they would prefer AI managers themselves. This blurring of roles reflects how quickly “agents,” AI systems that can act autonomously and not just generate text, are becoming embedded in workflows.
But the shift carries psychological consequences. Professionals report rising FOBO, fear of becoming obsolete, as they watch AI take over analysis, reporting, and compliance tasks once seen as their domain. That anxiety often morphs into imposter syndrome, especially for employees who worry they cannot learn the tools fast enough or who see their existing skills devalued. Surveys also show two-thirds of workers fear falling behind without AI training, yet most do not feel their organizations are providing enough support. Managers who fail to address this risk turning a productivity tool into a source of disengagement.
Are AI agents taking your employee compliance trainings? (HR Brew)
The lesson is straightforward: AI may automate workflows, but it cannot automate trust or confidence. Leaders will need to normalize the learning curve, emphasize human strengths like judgment and empathy, and provide equitable access to training. Otherwise, agentic AI could create organizations that run efficiently on paper but hollow out the confidence of the people inside them.
Quote of the Week: Dusty Policies
“Update your social media policy for the TikTok era. If your handbook still says, ‘No posting on Facebook during work hours,’ you’re a decade behind.”
—Lynne Curry, Alaska workplace on the risks and responses of employee use of TikTok
Reading List:
Workers turn to useless skill certificates to keep up
Certificates and digital badges are booming, but most do not deliver, the Wall Street Journal reports. A Burning Glass analysis of 23,000 popular programs found only one in eight led to notable pay gains within a year. Even elite programs, like Harvard’s $13,760 project management certificate, barely moved the needle. The most effective credentials are those tied to in-demand, regulated fields like nursing and radiology, where workers saw pay bumps averaging $5,000 within a year.
The frozen economy
White-collar workers are seeing stagnant pay, even as service-sector employees gain ground. Hospitality wages have risen nearly 30% since 2021, outpacing inflation, while teachers and office staff are falling behind. Gen Z grads still see white collar/tech jobs as the goal, but those who land them may find raises and promotions scarce. With mobility at record lows, just 7.8% of Americans moved in 2024, job market dynamism is faltering, creating long-term risks for economic growth.
What to do when your employee features the office in their ‘TikTok’
Viral TikToks filmed at work are creating legal, reputational, and safety headaches. From accountants accidentally showing client tax returns to warehouse workers live-streaming stunts with forklifts, the risks are multiplying. Employers are scrambling to update policies: no filming on company property without approval, no confidential info in the frame, and no posting coworkers without consent. For employees, the warning is simple: if your video idea could get you fired, it probably will.
Data Point: Trust half empty
40-52%
The number of U.S. workers who said they view supervisors who use high levels of AI-assisted writing as sincere, according to a study published in the International Journal of Business Communication.
In Other News
Target Shares Tumble After Retailer Names a Lifer to Steer Its Turnaround. (Wall Street Journal)
Companies increasingly pursue risky marketing campaigns amid diversity rollbacks. (Reuters)
13 human skills gaps could threaten AI adoption, learning scientists say. (HR Dive)
'Job huggers' hold on for dear life. (LinkedIn)
Walmart extends 10% employee discount to nearly all groceries. (Wall Street Journal)
Economic anxiety is causing more employers to pull back on budgets for raises. (HR Brew)
Healthcare costs projected to rise 9% in 2026. (Employee Benefits News)
The ‘shadow AI economy’ is booming: Workers at 90% of companies say they use chatbots, but most of them are hiding it from IT. (Fortune)